Can Bitcoin Reach $200,000 This Year? Market Considers Betting Odds

On January 12, 2025, the price of bitcoin fluctuated within a range of $95,000, while market participants on prediction platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket were betting on its future trajectory. Currently, a Polymarket bet indicates a 12% chance that bitcoin could rise to $120,000 by the end of the month. Kalshi and Polymarket predict the price of Bitcoin in 2025: Short-term and long-term betting Looking towards 2025, expectations are very high. According to Chinese astrology, this is the year of the Wood Snake, symbolizing growth and strategic vision. A significant attention-grabbing strategy is whether President-elect Donald Trump will establish a national strategic bitcoin reserve fund for the United States. Additionally, some experts and analysts predict that Trump's inauguration could trigger a price surge for BTC, pushing its value to a new high. On Kalshi, a long-term betting event is taking place regarding the potential peak value of bitcoin before 2026. Currently, there is a 59% chance that its price will reach $125,000 or higher. Thirty-five percent of bettors predict that the price will exceed $150,000, while 29% predict that the price will exceed $160,000. As of now, this specific Kalshi bet is valued at $133,000. Meanwhile, an immediate bet on Polymarket titled "What will Bitcoin's price be in January?" has seen activity of around $6.2 million.

Currently, the top option is $90,000 with a 61% probability, followed by $105,000 with 41%. Betting on $110,000 has a 26% chance, while $80,000 is predicted with a 16% probability. The odds for $120,000 are 12% and the odds for $130,000 are 4%. The extravagant amount of $200,000 has a fragile 1% chance, with $150,000 holding a 2% betting rate and $140,000 slightly higher with a percentage point. Another Polymarket betting market with the title "What will be the price of Bitcoin on March 31?" has accumulated about $1 million in volume, with $90,000 leading the predictions at 76%. There is a 64% chance that the price will reach $110,000 at that time, and 47% predict a range near $80,000. Around 43% of bettors support the $120,000 level, while 28% expect $130,000 by the end of March. There is a 13% chance of $150,000 and 7% of bettors believe that $200,000 is a possible outcome.

As 2025 approaches, the bustling activity in the market is predicted to reflect increasing expectations about the future of bitcoin. While prices continue to fluctuate, investors are betting on key factors that could significantly shape its trajectory. The outcomes of these bets will provide a glimpse into the confidence and expectations surrounding the potential of cryptocurrency as the year unfolds.

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