"Internal strife" has begun? Powell was bombarded, the Fed was in a dilemma, and the internal struggle escalated!


The inevitable has finally come. It has always been obvious that Trump and the Federal Reserve are not getting along. The Fed hopes to gradually lower interest rates to maintain the dominance of the US dollar, while Trump's priority is to maintain his current political achievements.
And it has not been four days since he took office, Trump began to bombard Powell, and directly said that he understands interest rates better than Powell, and is more confident that the Fed will listen to him. Is an infighting between Trump and the Fed about to begin?
Trump's "forcing the palace"
I thought that in the face of a chaotic environment, Trump would take it one step at a time. However, unexpectedly, before the issue of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is resolved, Trump publicly called on Powell to change the strategy. Is Trump starting to pressure the Federal Reserve now?
Before, we all knew that the United States has a separation of powers, but what many people don't realize is that the United States is not just a separation of powers. Even the financial power of the United States is not in the hands of the US authorities. When the US government is short of money, it needs to report, then get approval from Congress, and ultimately, it needs the cooperation of the Federal Reserve to apply for funds.
And this means that the Fed seems to have less power than Congress, but the Fed actually holds the purse strings of the United States, which means that the United States has to look at the Fed's face when it wants to borrow money. So what is the current situation in the United States?
The underlying consumption power has basically been exhausted, and at present, whether it is the overdue situation of credit cards in the United States or the default situation of loans, it has reached the situation of the 08 subprime mortgage crisis, which means that the current United States, in fact, the actual situation is not good.
And Trump's coming to power means he has to stabilize the economy while not falling behind in the midterm elections. This means that Trump must cut interest rates to ensure sufficient market liquidity and reduce the pressure on American borrowers.
You should know that the so-called moonlight in the United States is different from ours, because in addition to consumer loans, the United States also has a bunch of pressures such as lunch loans, student loans, mortgages, and car loans, which means that almost every American is tied to debt.
And currently, the interest rates in the United States are still at a high level of about 4.25%-4.5%, which has to some extent increased the pressure of life. What's more, the favorable effects of the previous easing in the United States have already been completely exhausted, so now in order to stabilize the US economy, interest rates must be lowered.
At the same time, whether it's tariffs on foreign countries or tax cuts at home, Trump needs to spend money. At this time, Biden has spent all the surplus of the US Treasury before leaving office, which means that Trump must borrow a lot and issue more government bonds to maintain the operation of the United States.
At this time, high interest rates are undoubtedly robbing the US government, so how could Trump sit back and do nothing in the face of such a situation?
Some people may say that as long as tariffs are imposed, there will be revenue, and as long as investments from Japan and Saudi Arabia land, there will be revenue. But who doesn't know that these so-called revenues are not immediate, but a very slow process.
More importantly, whether it is Saudi investment or Japanese investment, will it really land? It can be said that there are very big variables here, and everyone is waiting, waiting for Trump's midterm elections, waiting for the future of the United States after four years.
So the only way for Trump is to not let the crisis explode in his hands, and the only way is for the Fed to release a large amount of liquidity to delay the arrival of the crisis, there is no other way.
Is the internal struggle in the United States escalating?
This time, Trump's call to Powell is enough to indicate that the contradiction between the current US authorities and the Fed has clearly begun to escalate. Because in Trump's eyes, not cutting interest rates is obviously against him. After all, the depletion of market liquidity is continuing, and the cost of US debt is rapidly soaring, which means that Trump must do something.
Currently, the scale of US national debt has reached about 36 trillion dollars, and according to relevant institutions' predictions, the interest on US national debt will reach about 2 trillion dollars by 2025.
And it should be noted that the current fiscal revenue of the United States is only about 4 trillion U.S. dollars, with its national mandatory expenditures at about 3.5 trillion U.S. dollars, and its medical insurance expenditures at about 2.6 trillion U.S. dollars. If interest expenditures are added, this basically reaches about 1.7 times the fiscal revenue.
This requires the US authorities to continue to borrow and pay off debts, and it is in a high-interest rate environment. This can be seen as not the US cutting the world's leeks, but the Federal Reserve cutting the US leeks.
At the same time, Trump also wants to lower corporate taxes, even directly to 15%, which means that income will decline rapidly. At this time, where does the money come from for consumption?
Either it is what Trump said about imposing tariffs on the world to make up for the revenue, but this is bound to raise the cost of living and inflation in the United States, so although Trump says it, it is hard to say whether he dares to fully implement it.
On the other hand, the other side needs to borrow more aggressively. However, borrowing at the current interest rate is undoubtedly exchanging America's future for current prosperity, and it is also an accelerating process. Therefore, in the face of this process, Trump inevitably needs the cooperation of the Federal Reserve.
As long as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the stock market in the United States can prosper again, and their own people can benefit, while also reducing the pressure of the bottom-tier loans in the United States, which can increase their chances of winning the midterm elections. And don't forget, Trump has already prepared a basin to catch water. If the Federal Reserve doesn't release water, how can they make money?
So now it's up to the Fed to stick to its own views or choose to be tough with Trump. In the previous stage, the Fed chose to cut interest rates, and this time it depends on the Fed's actions!
TRUMP2.15%
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