HTX DeepThink: Fiscal expansion and delayed tariffs boost short-term strength of BTC and ETH, while the risk window remains to be observed.

According to DeepFlow news on July 10, HTX DeepThink column author and HTX Research analyst Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) pointed out that the US announced on July 4, after the long weekend, that it would further delay the tariffs originally scheduled to take effect on August 1, winning a last window for negotiations; June's non-farm payroll added 147,000 jobs (previously revised up by 16,000), the unemployment rate fell to 4.12%, and hourly wages increased by 0.2% month-on-month, causing the July interest rate cut expectation to drop from 24% to about 5%. The terminal interest rate is estimated to be 3.8% by the end of 2025 and 3.15% by the end of 2026. Under the dual catalyst of significant tax reform injections and increased NATO defense spending during the Trump administration, the S&P 500 has repeatedly hit new highs, Bitcoin continued to hit new highs in early trading today, and the ETH ETF saw a single-day capital inflow reaching a quarterly high. Fundstrat's BMNR raised $250 million to significantly increase its holdings of ETH, which also propelled its stock price to soar over 30 times.

The minutes of the Federal Reserve's June meeting released last night show significant internal disagreement regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation, with only a few officials supporting a rate cut in July, while most prefer to wait and see; the next key turning point is the CPI on July 15 and the earnings season this week. In the summer window period characterized by "delayed tariffs + fiscal expansion + employment resilience + Federal Reserve disagreement," BTC and SPX have the conditions to continue performing strongly in the short term, but their trends will still be largely influenced by macro data as well as geopolitical and policy risks.

On-chain dynamics also confirm market resilience: the reserves of centralized exchanges for BTC have fallen to about 2.4 million coins (accounting for less than 11% of the circulating supply); in terms of derivatives, Deribit Bitcoin options nominal open interest has exceeded 40 billion USD, with a Put/Call ratio of 0.75 and a maximum pain point of 102,000 USD, while ETH options open interest is over 20 billion USD, with a Put/Call ratio of 0.52 and a pain point locked at 2,200 USD. This indicates a resonance between liquidity tightening and stablecoin purchasing power, reflecting cautious optimism in the market. It suggests that crypto assets still have opportunities for rebound and bottom formation in the summer window. However, if BTC falls below 102,000 USD or ETH loses 2,200 USD, it may trigger pain point liquidation risks.