Bitcoin Price Prediction: Can the Price Exceed 130,000 USD in August?

Is the prediction that Bitcoin will reach $130,000 by the end of July realistic considering the recent performance of the market? The performance of Bitcoin (BTC USD) over the past 4 months has created a blend of optimism and FOMO, with the latest ATH, but it also leaves many wondering whether the price can go higher. Polymarket has provided some interesting insights related to Bitcoin price predictions. The prediction platform highlights a 43% chance that BTC will maintain a level above $120,000 by the end of July and only a 4% chance that the price could surge to $140,000. Analysis shows that the predicted Bitcoin price above 130,000 dollars is at the average level. Clear signs indicate that there is not much certainty about the price increase potential of BTC at the time of August. While the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching 130,000 dollars in August is lower, Polymarket reveals that the probability of achieving a similar goal by the end of 2025 is higher. The exact figure is 77%, reflecting the medium-term price increase prospects of the market. The Key Factors That May Affect Bitcoin Price Predictions Whales and organizations are leading the latest price surge, along with moves to promote regulations supporting cryptocurrency. However, the price of Bitcoin has been trending sideways since Monday, indicating that the price increase over the past 4 weeks is cooling down. The demand from FOMO investors into Bitcoin (BTC USD) is likely to allow the buyers to continue dominating. However, there are several key factors that could change the outcome. Among those factors is the fact that the United States is poised to reignite the trade war in the coming weeks. The last time the trade war escalated, the cryptocurrency market witnessed a significant decline in sentiment. Analysts are also closely monitoring the inflation situation, a factor that continues to influence the FED's interest rate decisions. This may put additional pressure on the market and force investors to change their strategies in the coming weeks. The possibility of Bitcoin's price being interrupted can cause investors to panic and could potentially lead to another price drop. If that happens, Bitcoin is likely to regain its downward momentum. It is noteworthy that the remaining time of July may provide some buffer space, primarily categorized as strong market manipulation. This Is How Smart Money Moves This Week The price of Bitcoin (BTC USD) has risen above $118,000 after recovering from Friday's low of $118,022. The narrow and sideways price range indicates that demand is weakening. On-chain data shows a spike in selling pressure. The net cash flow data from the Bitcoin exchange indicates a shift between outflows and inflows over the past 7 days. The outflow of funds from the Binance exchange mainly occurred between the lowest point of Bitcoin in April and the recent high. According to a recent analysis by Cryptoquant, the inflow of funds into the exchange has reached approximately 2.7 billion dollars since July 11. This aligns with the latest efforts of cryptocurrency to maintain its upward momentum. Foreign reserves have increased again from 2.39 million BTC on July 10 to 2.43 million BTC on July 18. This confirms that there has been a significant amount of profit-taking. There has been a significant decrease in the flow of funds into the BTC exchange over the past 24 hours, which may signal weak selling pressure throughout the weekend. This has the potential to set the stage for another price increase next week if demand continues. However, large order book statistics on Coinglass show that the spot trading flow on the three major exchanges is in the negative. On the other hand, futures contracts, especially on Binance, signal bullish bets of over 400 million dollars. The situation on the exchanges highlights the potential for another manipulation event that could push BTC's volatility higher. The open interest of Bitcoin remains high at over 85 billion dollars at the time of observation, which means there is still high derivative activity. $BTC {spot}(BTCUSDT)