Ethereum Price Prediction: ETH Futures Premium Rate Reaches 8%, Extreme Bullish Indicates Rebound to $5000?

Ethereum (ETH) prices started the week by briefly touching $3,940 before falling 4%. This decline aligns with the overall pullback trend in the crypto assets market, indicating that it is not triggered by factors unique to ETH. Although some traders may feel panic, the prices of ETH derivatives remain stable, suggesting that ETH still has the potential to rise to $5,000. Amid global macroeconomic uncertainty, Ethereum's market performance and the continued inflow of institutional funds are becoming the focus of market attention.

ETH Traders Cautiously Predict: Futures Premium Rate Reveals Bullish Signal

The global market is still following the negotiations on U.S. import tariffs, and analysts warn that if an agreement is not reached, the risk of economic recession could increase significantly. Although China reached a trade agreement with Europe on Monday, August 12 is the deadline for China to finalize the agreement. Therefore, traders seem to prefer holding cash or allocating to short-term bonds.

(Source: Trading View)

To assess whether trader sentiment has changed after the ETH pullback, one can look at the monthly futures premium. In neutral situations, the annualized premium of this indicator typically ranges between 5% and 10% to compensate for the longer settlement period. Currently, the ETH futures premium rate is at 8%, the highest level in the past five months. Interestingly, despite the fact that ETH prices have risen by 55% in the past three weeks, the premium rate remains the same. From a bullish perspective, this indicates that if ETH is more confident in breaking through $4,000, traders still have room to leverage.

(Source: Laevitas)

To determine whether this trend is limited to the futures market, the skewness of options should be considered. When large traders and market makers anticipate downside risk, the 30-day Delta skew is above the neutral line of 6%. Currently, the skew of Ether options reflects a relatively balanced market expectation for price movements, contrasting sharply with the optimistic sentiment of 8% a week ago. After ETH reached its highest level in seven months, professionals have not taken defensive measures, indicating that the confidence of whales and market makers remains strong.

(Source: Laevitas)

Ethereum Spot ETF Capital Inflow: The Key Driver of ETH's Strong Momentum

The most important driver of ETH's recent strength is the inflow of the spot ETH exchange-traded fund (ETF). This has allowed ETH to stand out among many competing assets. From July 11 to July 25, there was a net inflow of 4.23 billion USD into the ETH ETF, bringing the total assets under management of the US-listed ETH ETFs to 17.24 billion USD.

According to data from StrategicEthReserve, over 40 companies hold at least 1,000 ETH in corporate reserves, which is equivalent to 3.8 million USD at current prices. It is noteworthy that companies including Bitmine Immersion Tech, SharpLink Gaming, and The Ether Machine collectively hold ETH worth 8.84 billion USD.

Objectively speaking, apart from the US-listed company Strategy led by Michael Saylor and the Bitcoin mining group, only eight companies hold Bitcoin worth over $1 billion on their balance sheets. Although they entered this trend relatively late, companies focusing on adopting Ether as a key strategy are gaining follow at an astonishing pace. This indicates that institutional interest in Ethereum is rapidly growing, viewing it as an important asset allocation option.

Macroeconomic and Technical Analysis: Short-term Possibility of Breaking Through 5000 USD

From the derivatives market perspective, ETH traders remain cautiously optimistic. As long as institutional demand remains stable, a breakthrough of $5,000 in the short term is still realistic. Despite the uncertainties in the global macroeconomic environment, Ethereum's intrinsic value and the continuous development of its ecosystem, coupled with strong inflows of institutional funds, provide solid support for its price.

However, investors still need to closely follow the progress of macroeconomic negotiations and the changes in technical indicators. The volatility of the Crypto Assets market remains high, and any unexpected events could affect price trends.

The futures premium rate of Ethereum and the continued inflow of institutional funds together paint a bullish picture. Although there may be short-term pressure from market corrections, Ethereum, as the second-largest asset in the crypto assets market, is increasingly solidifying its position in the minds of institutional investors. With the popularity of spot ETH ETFs and more companies incorporating Ethereum into their balance sheets, ETH is expected to break the $5,000 barrier in the near future, marking a new milestone.