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Gate VIP Weekly Report (June 16, 2025 - June 23, 2025) | Gate Research Institute: Mainstream Token falls across the board, KAI and SEI rise against the trend by over 10%.
1. Market Overview of Last Week
Last week (from June 16 to June 23, 2025), influenced by macro factors such as the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the possibility of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) saw an overall decline, while the altcoin market experienced a more significant pullback.
In terms of industry dynamics, Solana's liquidity protocol Meteora has launched a profit and loss tracker and DLMM tool to further optimize user experience; Renzo Protocol has partnered with Concrete to launch a Restaking Vault product aimed at institutions, promoting the institutionalization process of the EigenLayer ecosystem; Plasma plans to launch its mainnet by the end of summer, dedicated to building a zero-fee stablecoin trading infrastructure on Bitcoin sidechains; Ink has announced the launch of its native token INK and an airdrop to incentivize the development of its DeFi ecosystem; the Trump family's social platform Truth Social plans to launch a dual Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF, showcasing its continued bet on crypto assets; Ondo Finance has initiated a "Global Market Alliance" to promote the standardization process of RWA on-chain; the Namada mainnet is about to go live, with NAM tokens starting trading this week; the founder of Backpack announced that the deposit and withdrawal system has been rebuilt to enhance the multi-chain support capabilities of the trading platform.
On the policy front, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged this week, with the dot plot indicating potential rate cuts twice in 2025. Market expectations for a rate cut in September rose to 71%. This stability in interest rate expectations provides support for risk assets in the short term, likely boosting sentiment in the crypto market. At the same time, Truth Social, under Trump, submitted a dual ETF application for Bitcoin and Ethereum to the SEC, demonstrating its continued bet on crypto assets and potentially leveraging political influence to accelerate its mainstream adoption. The Vietnamese National Assembly passed the "Digital Technology Industry Law," officially recognizing the legal status of crypto assets and injecting policy confidence into the large local crypto user base.
In terms of market trends, Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded slightly to 101,106 USDT (-1.26%) after touching the support level of 98,000 USDT, with the long-short ratio fluctuating between 0.90-1.10. During the same period, there was a net inflow of 6.4 million USD into BTC ETFs. Ethereum (ETH) bounced back to 2,242 USDT (-0.84%) after breaking through the key support level, with the long-short ratio fluctuating narrowly between 0.90-1.02. This week, ETH ETFs saw a net outflow of 11.3 million USD. Against the backdrop of an overall market pullback, some tokens rose against the trend: KAIA led with a 7-day increase of 19.42%, currently priced at 0.19 USD, with its on-chain DEX daily trading volume soaring from less than 100,000 USD to over 2 million USD; SEI recorded a weekly increase of 13.43%, currently at 0.20 USD, with on-chain whale address 0xf055 accumulating over 6 million USD in SEI within two weeks.
In terms of on-chain funds, the capital flow of cross-chain bridges shows significant differentiation. Base chain leads with a net inflow of 36.27 million USD, with its TVL rising to 3.537 billion USD and stablecoin market capitalization reaching 4.153 billion USD. Within the Base ecosystem, the core protocol Aerodrome has a TVL exceeding 1 billion USD, Spark Protocol's TVL is 420 million USD, and Moonwell's TVL is approximately 220 million USD. At the same time, Hyperliquid chain net inflow reached 8.92 million USD, its mainnet TVL leaped into the top ten public chains, HYPE token market cap entered the top eleven in cryptocurrency, with daily average fees as high as 2-3 million USD, and annualized revenue approaching 100 million USD. Notably, biotech company Eyenovia announced a $50 million investment in HYPE tokens, driving its stock price to soar 134% in a single day.
Overall, despite the overall pressure on the cryptocurrency market last week under macro geopolitical stress, some L2 ecosystems (especially Base) and tokens with clear narratives have shown strong performance, reflecting structural opportunities and signs of capital reallocation in the market amid uncertainty.
2. Alpha Juejin
2.1 BTC continues in a downward channel, support halts the decline but the rebound is yet to be confirmed.
Technical Analysis 2.1.1
From June 16 to June 23, 2025, BTC continued its downward channel trend, with overall high and low points gradually declining, reflecting persistent bearish pressure dominating the market. During this period, it repeatedly challenged the upper channel limit and the MA30 moving average (approximately 103,000 USDT) but failed each time, indicating weak momentum for a mid-term rebound; meanwhile, the short-term low point once dipped near 98,200 USDT, showing a slight rebound after touching the lower channel support.
From a technical perspective, the current price is still fluctuating around the MA5 and MA10, and the short-term moving averages have not effectively turned bullish, but they indicate a weakening of bearish momentum, with the bulls attempting to take control of the trend in the short term. If it can break above MA30 and the upper channel with increased volume, it is expected to confirm a short-term bottom structure and further challenge the resistance zone of 105,000-110,000 USDT; conversely, if it falls below the support of 98,200 USDT again, the downside risk will rise again. The overall structure remains bearish, and the strength of short-term rebounds and trading volume performance will be key observation points.
2.1.2 Long-Short Ratio Over The Past Week
According to Coinglass data, from June 16 to June 23, 2025, the BTC long/short ratio remained fluctuating between 0.90 and 1.10, indicating that market sentiment is leaning towards a wait-and-see approach, lacking a clear trend direction.
After the price touched the lower support at 98,200 USDT, the long-short ratio showed a significant rebound, quickly rising from a low of 0.91 to 1.10, indicating that some funds are trying to position themselves at low levels and seize the rebound ahead of time. However, this fluctuation still needs further observation to determine whether it has sustainability and volume support before confirming that the market direction has truly turned.
Overall, the long-short ratio in this cycle has not deviated from the oscillation pattern, with a short-term bullish sentiment only emerging after testing the lower support. If the long-short ratio can stabilize above 1.05 in the future, it may serve as important evidence that a short-term bottom has been completed; conversely, if it falls below 1.00 again, the downside risk still needs to be taken seriously. [2]
In summary, although BTC is still consolidating within a downward channel this week, initial signs of a halt in the decline have emerged near the lower support level, with a slight increase in short-term rebound momentum. Coupled with the rise in the long-short ratio from a low level, market sentiment has also shown signs of temporary recovery, indicating that some funds are trying to seize the opportunity for a rebound. However, whether it is the price movement or the long-short ratio structure, a clear breakout has not yet formed. The ability to effectively increase volume and stabilize at key moving averages and psychological levels will be crucial in confirming the phase of bottom formation and trend reversal. Overall, the current pattern is slightly weak but brewing a turning point, and it is still necessary to cautiously observe changes in volume and market participation enthusiasm.
2.2 ETH has weak rebound at low levels, and the long-short sentiment continues to fluctuate while remaining in consolidation.
2.2.1 Technical Analysis
From June 16 to June 23, 2025, ETH continued its downward channel trend, showing a movement similar to BTC, with overall high and low points gradually declining, and the bearish trend still dominating. On June 22, after the price dipped to the support area at the lower edge of the channel, a slight rebound occurred, and it is currently consolidating around the 2,240 USDT level. From a technical perspective, the current price is still oscillating below the MA5 and MA10, and the short-term moving averages have not yet turned bullish, but there are signs of a stop in the decline; the MACD double lines are likely to form a golden cross, indicating a weakening of bearish momentum, and short-term funds are attempting to enter.
If ETH can break through MA10 and the upper channel in the future, there is hope for further rebound space, challenging MA30 and the upper pressure zone; conversely, if the price falls below the lower channel again, it will restart the downtrend. The overall structure remains bearish, and the short-term trend depends on the performance of trading volume and the breakthrough of key pressure zones.【3]
2.2.2 Long-Short Ratio in the Past Week
According to Coinglass data, the ETH Long/Short Ratio has been fluctuating within a narrow range of 0.90 to 1.02, with market sentiment swinging back and forth, and a lack of consensus on direction. During this period, the LSR attempted multiple times to rise above 1.00, but for the most part, it was unable to hold effectively, indicating that bullish confidence remains insufficient.
In terms of rhythm, the ETH long-short ratio fell below 0.90 on June 20, reflecting a dominance of short-term bearish pressure; however, it quickly rebounded and approached 1.00 again after June 22, indicating some support and rebound expectations at low levels. Nevertheless, overall trading momentum remains weak, with no clear trend-oriented inflow in the market, and the main funds continue to maintain a cautious wait-and-see approach.
If LSR can stabilize above 1.05 in the future and is accompanied by increased volume, a bullish structure is expected to be established, supporting ETH to challenge the upper moving average pressure; on the contrary, if the long-short ratio continues to be limited below 1.00, the market may maintain a weak oscillating pattern, and the rebound space in the future will also be restricted. 【4】
In summary, ETH continues its downward channel trend. Although there has been support at the lower edge of the channel and a rebound has occurred in the short term, it is still in a bearish structure overall. The technical indicators show that the price has not yet broken through the key moving averages, and the MACD momentum recovery is just beginning, with the foundation for the rebound still unstable. In terms of the long-short ratio, market sentiment is fluctuating. Although the bulls are trying to stabilize, they have not effectively maintained above 1, reflecting a cautious attitude from the funds. If the price can synchronize with LSR and break through key resistance levels with volume, ETH may hope to see a more sustained rebound; otherwise, it still needs to guard against a continued weak fluctuation pattern.
2.3 Top 100 mainstream tokens
On a macro level, the armed conflict between Israel and Iran continues to escalate. On June 22, U.S. President Trump stated that the U.S. military had completed strikes on three nuclear facilities in Iran: Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. In retaliation, Iran announced that it might close the Strait of Hormuz due to U.S. military actions. As a result, panic spread in the global capital markets, with Bitcoin falling below $100,000. Over the past 7 days, the median drop among the top 100 cryptocurrencies was 13.47%, showing a general downward trend.
2.3.1 Kaia KAIA (+19.42%, Circulating Market Cap 1.15 billion USD)
According to the market data from Coinmarketcap, the current price of KAIA token is 0.19 USD, with a 7-day increase of 19.42%.
KAIA is the native cryptocurrency of the Kaia blockchain, used to enhance network security and pay transaction fees. The Kaia blockchain is formed by the merger of Klaytn developed by Kakao and Finschia developed by LINE. As an EVM-compatible L1 blockchain, it features extremely low transaction latency, a 1-second block time, and instant transaction finality, providing a solid foundation and smooth user experience for applications that require real-time responses.
Macro Policy Impact & Project Fundamentals Change The rise of KAIA this week is attributed to multiple factors. On the policy front, the new South Korean President Lee Jae-myung has taken office and supports the Korean won stablecoin policy. The Kaia Foundation quickly seized the opportunity and partnered with local giants such as Kakao Pay and LINE NEXT to actively promote the implementation of the Korean won stablecoin, a series of measures that significantly boosted market confidence. On the product side, Kaia Hub was launched on June 16, making it easier for users to explore an integrated gateway, while also allowing them to track assets, discover dapps, and exchange tokens. On-chain data shows that the daily trading volume of the Kaia Network DEX has increased from $100,000 to over $2 million.
Social Media Influence Kaia's social media influence peaked on June 19, reaching nearly a 6-month high, with engagement surpassing 48,000 and mentions exceeding 400. The core reason for this was that on June 18, Kaia's official Twitter updated multiple tweets related to the construction of the stablecoin ecosystem, significantly increasing the discussion on social media and creating anticipation for the Korean won stablecoin launched by Kaia. 【6】
Whale Activity The number of on-chain wallet addresses holding KAIA tokens is relatively low, and multiple on-chain large transaction monitoring accounts have not detected any large transactions related to KAIA tokens.
Technical Analysis Since June 9, when KAIA experienced a single-day growth of over 35%, it has shown good continuity. On June 9, the KAIA token rose from $0.10 to $0.14, and after a brief adjustment, it surged again to $0.18 on June 12. In the following days, it adjusted around the $0.15 price range, and on June 20, KAIA climbed back above $0.20. From the 1-hour MACD indicator perspective, the "golden cross" on June 23 is a relatively clear buy signal, and in the following 24 hours, the token price rose from $0.17 to nearly $0.20.
2.3.2 Sei SEI (+13.43%, Circulating Market Cap 1.13 Billion USD)
According to Coinmarketcap market data, the current price of the SEI token is 0.20 USD, with a 7-day increase of 13.43%.
The Sei network is a high-performance DeFi-specific layer one blockchain built on Cosmos. It provides a decentralized trading platform through its built-in Central Limit Order Book (CLOB) module, allowing users to trade directly without intermediaries. Sei's design optimizes trading speed and costs, making it an ideal environment for DEX. The Sei v2 upgrade introduces a parallel EVM, further enhancing performance and user experience, supporting a transaction throughput of up to 20,000 TPS and a transaction confirmation time of about 390 milliseconds. [8]
Impact of Macroeconomic Policies & Changes in Project Fundamentals On June 20, Sei's official X account tweeted that Sei Network has been selected by the Wyoming Stable Token Committee as a candidate blockchain for WYST, which is a stablecoin backed by fiat currency in the United States and will utilize LayerZero's cross-chain bridging technology. At the same time, Sei Network is one of only two blockchains chosen by the Wyoming Stable Token Committee in the previous round. This is a significant proposal for the first state-issued stablecoin in the United States. This is an important step for Sei to continue leading crypto innovation in the U.S.
Social Media Influence The tweet released by the official SEI account regarding Sei Network being selected for the Wyoming Stablecoin Committee is the most viewed tweet from that account in recent times, with a total of 220,000 views and 372 retweets. On June 20th at 9 PM, multiple metrics of Sei's social media influence rapidly increased, with engagement nearing 140,000 within an hour and mentions exceeding 1,200 times. [10]
3. On-chain Capital Insights
3.1 Base Chain Dynamic Energy Enhancement: On-chain funds and ecological synergy resonance
On-chain data from the past week shows a significant divergence in the flow of funds across cross-chain bridges. The Base chain leads with a net inflow of $36.27 million, followed closely by Unichain (+$15.24 million) and Hyperliquid (+$8.92 million), demonstrating strong capital attraction. This trend reflects the market's high recognition of the growth potential of these emerging ecosystems. In stark contrast, Bera (–$58.51 million), Avalanche (–$51.60 million), and Mantle (–$15.46 million) have seen the largest net outflows, indicating a waning attractiveness of some older ecosystems.
The capital inflow into Base chain is not accidental; its ecological heat is rapidly rising. As an Ethereum Layer 2 network fully supported by Coinbase, Base is expanding from underlying technical infrastructure to real-world applications and accelerating its integration with centralized platforms and traditional finance.
With the support of these structural benefits, the expansion speed of the Base chain ecosystem has also明显加快. As of now, the TVL of the Base chain has reached 3.537 billion USD, and the market value of stablecoins is 4.153 billion USD, with several core protocols showing significant growth:【13】
Overall, the Base chain is evolving from a single technological infrastructure into a key bridge connecting centralized trading platforms, payment scenarios, traditional financial institutions, and crypto users. Investors are paying attention to the development of the Base chain ecosystem, expecting to gain a forward-looking perspective in the global public chain narrative and user migration trends.
3.2 Eyenovia makes a significant entry into Hyperliquid, with HYPE becoming the new favorite for "on-chain micro strategies".
Last week, in addition to the strong cross-chain bridge capital inflow attracted by the Hyperliquid ecosystem (+8.92 million USD, ranking in the top three), the most eye-catching news was that the eye drug digital technology company Eyenovia (EYEN) announced a $50 million investment in HYPE tokens. This amount far exceeds its current market value of $20 million and is positioned as the core target of the company's first crypto asset reserve program.
This decision comes at a time when the Hyperliquid ecosystem is rapidly rising: its mainnet TVL has jumped into the top ten of public chains, the market value of the HYPE token has entered the top eleven of cryptocurrencies, and the platform's daily transaction fees remain in the range of 2 to 3 million dollars, with an annual revenue approaching 100 million dollars. Attracted by HYPE's strong performance, Eyenovia, which is on the verge of delisting, sees it as a "lifeline." After the news was announced, Eyenovia's stock price skyrocketed by 134% on the same day. 【14】
It is worth noting that Eyenovia's strategy is not simply to hold HYPE, but aims to build an "On-chain Microstrategy" system around the token. This concept was first proposed by community member Telaga, and the core idea is to regard HYPE as an on-chain economic engine with intrinsic cash flow.
The strategy design includes the following three key components:
Following this, another publicly listed American company, Everything Blockchain Inc. (EBZT), also announced on June 20th its plan to invest $10 million into five major blockchain ecosystems, including Hyperliquid, to build a multi-token staking vault aimed at institutions, and to directly return staking profits to shareholders. This action further validates the feasibility of "on-chain micro-strategy" as a financial operation for enterprises and the on-chaining of balance sheets.
The core of HYPE attracting attention from traditional listed companies lies in its intrinsic cash flow and compound return potential exhibited as a high-growth decentralized exchange native token. However, with Coinbase and Robinhood announcing the launch of perpetual contract derivatives markets in the U.S., Hyperliquid is facing unprecedented competitive pressure. Whether the "on-chain micro strategy" can achieve success or is merely another form of "exit liquidity" packaging remains to be seen and validated by time and the market. In this context, risks in the crypto market still exist, and investors should remain cautious, conducting in-depth research before making decisions.
In addition, the stablecoin funding market Hyperdrive within the Hyperliquid ecosystem launched its first season incentive program on June 17, allowing users to deposit USDT0 (5.89% APY), USDe (4.64% APY), or stake HYPE to earn rewards and Hyperdrive points. It is worth noting that Hyperdrive just completed a $6 million Series A financing in May 2025, supported by several well-known institutions, and its points may have significant potential for the future.
4. Conclusion
Overall, despite the pressure on the cryptocurrency market last week from both macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, with BTC and ETH remaining in a weak oscillating pattern, there are still positive signals and potential turning points within the market based on on-chain capital flows and the performance of structural assets. Emerging L2 ecosystems like Base Chain are attracting significant net inflows, and tokens such as Hyperliquid and Kaia, which have clear narratives and improving fundamentals, are rising against the trend, indicating that capital is seeking certainty amidst macro pressure. Looking ahead, whether BTC and ETH can break through key technical levels will determine the breadth and depth of overall market sentiment recovery; meanwhile, assets with strong narrative drivers and active ecosystem development are likely to continue outperforming the market, becoming key focal points for Alpha strategies in the current market. While structural opportunities cannot hide systemic risks, grasping certain directions amidst fluctuations remains key to obtaining excess returns at this stage.
Reference Materials
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