Market Trends: Easing Geopolitical Tensions and Powell's Speech Drive Market Rise

Macroeconomic Environment

Recently, the macro environment has shown a positive shift. The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran has alleviated geopolitical tensions, boosting market risk appetite, and crude oil prices have fallen back to pre-conflict levels. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell sent key signals during a congressional hearing: while he did not explicitly rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July, he emphasized the need for more data to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation, suggesting that it is more likely to wait for the September meeting to decide on a policy shift. He stated that if inflationary pressures are controlled, there will be "earlier rather than later" rate cuts, but the current strong economy does not require hasty action. The market interpreted this as a dovish inclination, combined with the easing of geopolitical risks, leading to a broad surge in U.S. stocks, with the Nasdaq 100 hitting a record high and the Dow Jones soaring 500 points in a single day, while U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar both declined.

Cryptocurrency Market

Bitcoin has broken through $106,000 under macro-positive conditions, but its performance is relatively restrained. Some analysts point out that the 13% rise in Bitcoin since the beginning of the year contrasts with over $63 billion in capital inflows, reflecting the market's cautious attitude towards structural changes. Currently, the concentration of chips within a 5% range of the Bitcoin spot price has reached 14.5%. If it breaks through 15%, the market may experience significant volatility. Several technical analysts believe that Bitcoin may consolidate at current levels in the short term, with $107,000 being a key resistance level.

On the Ethereum front, a trading platform experienced a large-scale fund withdrawal on June 23, with over 4,000 BTC and 61,000 ETH flowing out of the platform. This indicates that trader sentiment may be shifting from short-term speculation to a long-term holding strategy. Analysis points out that as the capital rotation pattern shifts from Bitcoin to Ethereum, ETH may see a significant rise, with its profit supply ratio far lower than that of Bitcoin, indicating potential for a catch-up. However, there are also analysts who hold the opposite view, believing that the ETH price has failed to break through $3,000 for over 20 consecutive weeks, damaging market confidence, and facing fierce competition from other public chains, making it difficult to return above $3,000 in the short term.

Market Hotspots

In the market, the official interaction between Solana and KOL has triggered a wave of $solami tokens, with a market cap reaching $12 million; $ACID attracted funds with the concept of "cross-Web2 and Web3 smart agents," reaching a market cap of $18 million; $TECH, leveraging the "Technologia" meme, saw its market cap reach $3.4 million.

Traditional financial institutions are accelerating their moves into the crypto space. U.S. company Nano Labs announced a strategic acquisition of a platform token through a $500 million convertible bond, causing its stock price to rise by 150% in a single day. In the Hong Kong market, a brokerage obtained a comprehensive virtual asset license, becoming the first Chinese brokerage to offer mainstream cryptocurrency trading services, which stimulated its Hong Kong stock price to pump by over 100% at its peak during trading.

Market Data

As of June 25, 12:00 HKT:

• Bitcoin: $106,202 (Year-to-date +13.61%), Daily Spot Trading Volume $27.86 billion
• Ethereum: $2,429.84 (Year-to-date -27.09%), Daily Spot Trading Volume $15.253 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 48 (Neutral)
• Market Share: BTC 64.6%, ETH 9.0%
• 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 1.0751
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 79,735 people globally were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $187 million.

ETF Fund Flow

As of June 24:

• Bitcoin ETF: +$589 million (net inflow for 11 consecutive days)
• Ethereum ETF: +71.2379 million USD

Future Outlook

Multiple cryptocurrency projects will have token unlocks in the near future, including Venom, AltLayer, and IOTA. The market will continue to focus on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's monetary policy statement in the Senate, as well as the new coin listings and contract trading openings on major exchange platforms.