Bank of America: It is expected that the Fed will not cut interest rates this year, and the US economy will not fall into recession.

On July 21, Bank of America predicted that despite market expectations for rate cuts, the U.S. economy will avoid recession in 2025, and the Fed will not cut rates this year. The bank noted that strong consumer spending and rising goods inflation indicate that the economy remains resilient, and mentioned that June retail sales data exceeded expectations. Bank of America warned that politically motivated rate cuts could undermine the stability of inflation expectations and increase credit risks. Looking ahead, the bank expects initial jobless claims to rise slightly, housing data to remain stable, and durable goods orders released on Friday to potentially decline by 11%.