Crypto Market Weekly Report: Global economic turmoil causes market fluctuations, Bitcoin falls to $114,000

Market Overview

Recently, the global macroeconomic situation has been turbulent. The US non-farm payroll data for July was significantly lower than expected, with only 73,000 new jobs added, and the data for the previous two months was significantly revised down, causing market turmoil. This data directly led to the dismissal of the Director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, exacerbating concerns about the quality of economic data. At the same time, the sudden resignation of a Federal Reserve governor created an opportunity to pre-appoint someone in favor of rate cuts, leading to increased market expectations for a rate cut in September.

Against this backdrop, coupled with the pressure from new tariff policies and increased oil production, global risk assets are generally under pressure. Some analysts point out that despite the strong performance of large tech companies, stock prices have reacted tepidly, and small-cap stocks have been severely hit, indicating a clear shift of market funds towards safe havens. The president of the New York Fed believes that while the job market has cooled, it remains robust, and holds an open but cautious attitude towards a rate cut in September. The White House attributes the weak employment data to technical factors, expecting a rebound in the future. However, the market generally believes that the Federal Reserve is facing a dilemma of high inflation and a weakening job market, with the risk of policy missteps resurfacing.

The RWA sector in the Asia-Pacific region continues to develop, with a world-first RWA registration platform set to launch, aimed at providing a full-process service for the tokenization of real assets. Industry analysts believe that this marks a key step for Hong Kong in regulatory innovation for RWA, helping to enhance market compliance and transparency. The strong confidence of the capital market in the RWA sector will further drive the development and application of related technologies, injecting new momentum into the digital economy across the Asia-Pacific region.

Crypto Market

Bitcoin fell below $112,000 at one point over the weekend but has since rebounded to above $114,000. Analysts point out that the price drop below $112,000 is related to the weakness in the U.S. labor market, which may signal significant market changes. Some industry insiders believe that Bitcoin could drop to $100,000 amid weak global economic credit growth. There are also warnings that if it cannot return to $116,000, the price may further drop to $104,000. However, some opinions suggest that the range of $110,000 to $112,000 may provide effective support. Although August and September are typically weak months for Bitcoin, some analysts predict that Bitcoin is still likely to continue rising based on technical patterns, with a target price potentially reaching $148,000. The market generally expects Bitcoin to reach $150,000 by October 2025.

Regarding Ethereum, there are predictions that it may test $3000. Some traders advise investors to operate cautiously, believing that the current price performance resembles a false breakout. There are also analysts focusing on short-term opportunities for it to hit the 3.8K-4K range again, pointing out that the potential of the tokenized asset trust (DAT) model is underestimated and may become the key to attracting large-scale capital inflow from traditional finance. Some optimistic forecasts suggest that with Wall Street funds pouring in, Ethereum's fair price could reach between $10,000 and $20,000 within the next 12 months.

Over the weekend, some tokens related to the concept of artificial intelligence surged across the board, with female AI companion concept tokens rising by 45% in 24 hours, and male AI companion concept tokens soaring by 103%.

Market Data

As of August 4, 12:00 HKT:

• Bitcoin price: 114,556 USD, year-to-date increase of 22.42%, daily trading volume of 23.495 billion USD
• Ethereum price: $3,555.34, year-to-date increase of 6.4%, daily trading volume of $18.879 billion
• Market Fear and Greed Index: 64 (Greed)
• Bitcoin market share: 61.2%, Ethereum market share: 11.5%
• Total liquidation amount in 24 hours: $135 million

Capital Flow

As of August 1:

• Bitcoin ETF: A net outflow of $812 million, the second highest in history.
• Ethereum ETF: Net outflow of $152 million, ending a previous 20-day streak of net inflows.

Recent Hotspots

• Multiple tokens are about to undergo a large-scale unlock, with ENA unlocking a value of approximately 95.8 million dollars.
• The new U.S. tariff policy has attracted market attention.
• A well-known investment institution may hold approximately $765.4 million worth of HYPE tokens.
• Some listed companies have begun to purchase Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
• The US non-farm payroll data for July fell short of expectations, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%.

The crypto market continues to be affected by global macroeconomic conditions and policy changes. Investors need to closely monitor various economic data and policy trends while cautiously assessing the risks and opportunities of different assets.