Phân tích: Kinh tế Mỹ có thể gặp phải sự suy thoái không mong đợi vào năm sau, thị trường chứng khoán Mỹ có thể ít nhất điều chỉnh giảm 10%

The Leuthold Group's chief investment strategist, Jim Paulsen, said in his blog on December 31st that despite the increasing concerns of policy officials and investors about the possibility of the economy overheating, he believes that a unexpected economic slowdown is more likely to occur in 2025, which could ultimately lead to a pullback of at least 10% in the stock market. Jim Paulsen pointed out that based on history since 2003, fluctuations in bond yields typically lead to unexpected economic changes, with a decrease in yields indicating an improvement in the economy three months later, and vice versa. In his view, the bond yield hovering around 4.6% (reaching 4.63% last week) indicates that the unexpected economic index will slow down to -35 in the first quarter, and GDP will also slow down. Jim Paulsen said that if the unexpected economic slowdown intensifies people's concerns, the stock market may temporarily pause its pump, even if it is not a pullback of 10% to 15%.