The public information shows that Buffett started buying Apple stocks in the first quarter of 2016. When the annual financial report for October 2015 was released, Apple's net profit was $53.3 billion, with earnings per share of $9.22. At the beginning of January 2016, the stock price was $96, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 10.4. In 2020, Apple had a four-for-one stock split, so the above data is equivalent to a current stock price of $24, with earnings per share of $2.30. In the October 2024 annual financial report, Apple's profit was $93.7 billion, less than twice that of 2015, but due to regular stock buybacks reducing the number of outstanding shares, earnings per share were $6.08, 2.6 times that of 2015. However, in early 2025, Apple's stock price was $243, with a P/E ratio close to 40 times! From this example, it can be seen that the core driver of Apple's stock price increasing tenfold over the past nine years is the market's high expectations (P/E ratio increasing from 10 times in 2016 to 40 times in 2025), followed by profit growth (1.75 times), and stock buybacks. Those who bought Apple stocks at $243, if future expectations turn pessimistic and the P/E ratio contracts by 25% (from 40 times to 30 times), even with a 20% increase in profit, they would still face the dilemma of falling stock prices.
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The public information shows that Buffett started buying Apple stocks in the first quarter of 2016. When the annual financial report for October 2015 was released, Apple's net profit was $53.3 billion, with earnings per share of $9.22. At the beginning of January 2016, the stock price was $96, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 10.4. In 2020, Apple had a four-for-one stock split, so the above data is equivalent to a current stock price of $24, with earnings per share of $2.30. In the October 2024 annual financial report, Apple's profit was $93.7 billion, less than twice that of 2015, but due to regular stock buybacks reducing the number of outstanding shares, earnings per share were $6.08, 2.6 times that of 2015. However, in early 2025, Apple's stock price was $243, with a P/E ratio close to 40 times! From this example, it can be seen that the core driver of Apple's stock price increasing tenfold over the past nine years is the market's high expectations (P/E ratio increasing from 10 times in 2016 to 40 times in 2025), followed by profit growth (1.75 times), and stock buybacks. Those who bought Apple stocks at $243, if future expectations turn pessimistic and the P/E ratio contracts by 25% (from 40 times to 30 times), even with a 20% increase in profit, they would still face the dilemma of falling stock prices.