Food for thought: Market Trends Shift

Silicon Valley and Signature Bank have had a significant impact on the market, as evidenced by the current trends. The Inflationary Trade has been replaced by the Recessionary Trade, and investors are flocking to the safety of bonds.

The U.S. 2-year bond yield has dropped from 5% to 4%, while the 10-year bond yield has fallen from 4% to 3.4%. This is a clear sign that investors are concerned about the state of the economy and are looking for safe havens for their money.

Most commodities have also taken a hit, as investors become increasingly risk-averse. This is another sign that the market is anticipating a period of economic uncertainty.

The Federal Reserve is also closely monitoring these trends, and there has been a shift in expectations for their upcoming meeting on March 22. Only a 72% probability of a 25 point-hike is predicted, which is a drop from the 80% probability of a 50 point-hike that was predicted just a week ago.

Overall, it is clear that the market is reacting to the current state of the economy, and investors are looking for safe investments to weather the storm. The impact of Silicon Valley and Signature Bank is just one piece of a larger puzzle, but it is clear that their influence is being felt in the current market trends.

Traders should be on the lookout for additional market volatility this week as several key macroeconomic events are scheduled to take place. On Tuesday, the Consumer Price Index [CPI] will be released, followed by the Producer Price Index [PPI] on Wednesday. Finally, on Thursday, the jobless claims report will be published.