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Labubu cryptocurrency has been online for only a month, and its market capitalization has fallen to 28 million, with a daily decline of over 20%. This raises a thought-provoking question: why is the token of this globally renowned IP performing so poorly? To understand this phenomenon, we need to distinguish between two key facts. First of all, as an IP itself, Labubu has indeed achieved great success. This IP image, co-created by Pop Mart and artist Long Jia Sheng, has performed exceptionally well in over 30 countries worldwide by combining the blind box sales model, emotional resonance, and cultural elements. In the first half of 2024, the sales revenue of a single series of products reached an astonishing 6.3 billion RMB, making founder Wang Ning the richest person in Henan. However, the failure of the Labubu cryptocurrency has its inherent logic. Essentially, it is just a meme coin launched with the popularity of a well-known IP, lacking technical foundation, ecosystem, and practical application scenarios, entirely relying on market speculation to maintain its value. Once the hype fades, a price collapse becomes inevitable. There are countless similar cases in history. Popular IPs such as Fat Penguins, Bored Apes, and CryptoPunks have all attempted to issue NFTs, meme coins, and even physical merchandise, but ultimately could not escape the fate of a rapid decline after a brief period of prosperity. Although Labubu cryptocurrency uses the original IP name, it is essentially just another product that speculates on the IP effect. The success of the physical toy does not guarantee the sustained value of its token. While the physical IP still maintains its popularity in the market, its namesake cryptocurrency is on the verge of collapsing to zero, and this stark contrast is worth investors' deep reflection. This phenomenon also reflects a unique principle of the encryption market: projects that purely rely on the IP effect without substantial value support will ultimately face value re-evaluation and market elimination.

The recent trends in the crypto market are concerning, especially the performance of Solana Token. At the beginning of April, the price of SOL dropped to $95, and the market was clearly in an oversold state, followed by a strong rebound that almost doubled. However, this upward momentum did not last, and the price began to fall again. This pattern of first declining, then rising, and then declining again is very similar to the classic cyclical distribution trend, closely resembling the rhythm of the previous market adjustment. For risk-tolerant investors, it may be worth considering a low buy in the range of $110-120, but a stop-loss point must be set; if the support fails, one should decisively exit the market. It is worth noting that if the price breaks below the critical support level of $100, the market may enter a longer-term adjustment, and investors may need to be prepared for a long wait. They might even consider temporarily exiting and shifting their focus to other areas until market sentiment improves in 2025.

When the ZKJ system was working properly, I had predicted that the price would break through the 250-point mark. However, with the collapse of the system, the market wear rate has climbed dramatically, and the current trading range has soared from 8K to nearly 2U. Surprisingly, despite such a high rate of wear, the price not only did not fall back as expected, but rushed straight to the 251 level, which is a really puzzling trend. Fortunately, the short strategy was adopted in time for the previous two times to avoid greater losses. Considering the current high daily wear rate, it may be wiser not to continue to trade frequently, and it may be wiser to wait for a more suitable time to work on the contract. Strategy adjustment in this high-wear environment may be more rational than blind chasing.