On August 8, a certain institution released a weekly research report stating that the market has recently entered an adjustment phase, with Bitcoin momentum weakening and both liquidity and trading volume cooling down simultaneously. Trading volume has shrunk, and the funding rate remains low, causing the market structure to become more relaxed. At the same time, seasonal disturbances in August combined with external uncertainties have led to a noticeable cautiousness in short-term sentiment. From a technical perspective, the $112,000 level had previously provided support during the initial pullback of this round, but the subsequent rebound has been weak, and this support level is likely to face another test. If it falls below this level, the $106,000 range may once again become the market's focus.
The true premise for a bearish scenario is the continued weakening of the U.S. economy, while the Federal Reserve fails to timely initiate interest rate cuts. Current market phenomena further reinforce the view of a "possible rate cut in September." However, since the Federal Reserve has not yet released clear signals, the market may continue to maintain a wait-and-see approach, entering a period of consolidation.