There is hope for a topping adjustment in the short-term pie!

October 26, 2023 Bitcoin Forecast quotes from gate

The Bitcoin Big Framework assumes double sawtooth, wxy

x is the structure of any wave 3

The starting point of wave Y is $24XXX

The ongoing trend is the wave

The ya inclination is not over yet, and whether ya3 will end is pending.

ya1 ya2 has ended to build the first central structure.

Bitcoin pullbacks are coming at any time 

The current tendency is to build a second central structure, ya4  

The rebound target is 32XXX-33XXX

The top of the lower center at 28XXX retracement can not break 28XXX US dollars Break the tendency to end the whole wave Y.

As shown in the image:

![](https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-f3b3e13981-e368efba18-07811d-ea20a0-31) 

2023年10月26日 比特币预测  报价来源于gate

比特币大框架假设为双锯齿，wxy

x为任意浪3的结构

Y浪的起点为24XXX美金

正在进行中的走势为浪ya

ya 倾向尚未结束，ya3是否结束待定。

ya1 ya2已经结束 构建了第一个中枢结构。

比特币回调随时来临 

目前倾向为构建第二个中枢结构 ya4  

回踩目标为32XXX-33XXX

下方中枢的顶部在28XXX  回踩不能破28XXX美金 破位倾向整个浪Y结束。

如图所示：

![](https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-f3b3e13981-e368efba18-07811d-ea20a0-31)

比特币即将见顶？

Is Bitcoin about to peak?

Earlier, I made several opinions about the medium-term trend of Bitcoin.

One: the end of the 69,000-15,000 rally wave ending at $31,800.

![](https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-f3b3e13981-b98cf62178-07811d-ea20a0-13) 

Second: the end of the 69,000-15,000 rebound wave A ending at $31,000.

![](https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-f3b3e13981-18ceaaad74-07811d-ea20a0-12) 

Third: the end of the 69,000-15,000 rebound wave A ending at $31,800.

![](https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-f3b3e13981-3b39accbba-07811d-ea20a0-34) 

Among the several sets of plans, the second or third is nothing more than the adjustment of the structure, proportion, strength, time dimension, etc., but all of them are divided by the rebound wave and the end of the wave.

Among them, the subsequent trend of trend 1 is the same level of wave C or wave 3 is the monthly level of the big C wave down

His goal is to base it on a breakdown of $15XXX, and as for where to go after the breakdown, that's going to be market validation.

Among them, trend 2 is followed by 31000-24900 for wave Ba 249000-31800 is wave bb, and this section is composed of strong B of the rebound wave.

(Strong B wave is a type of trend formed by the starting point of breaking wave A) 31800-24900 is wave Bc, then the subsequent trend is the overall wave C

Wave C is a weekly pen According to AC equidistant calculations, the target of wave C is 40438 US dollars, and the minimum target is to break through 31800 US dollars, which can be completed at any time

Among them, trend 3 is the end of wave A at $31800, but it is not complete and equal to the entire rebound wave structure

The daily decline of $31800-24900 is a wave structure of 24900-30300 or ???? USD

Followed by a mid-level daily pen decline to complete the wave B structure of the entire weekly line, and at the same time wave B structure to complete the wave C main rising wave at any time.

The above are a few views on the trend of the medium-term level.

Suppose the pie breaks through $31,800, then you have to reject Option 1 Option 3 In fact, some time ago I proposed $28,600 as the dividing line between bulls and bears in the medium term.

![](https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-f3b3e13981-d690d009dc-07811d-ea20a0-9) 

The trend since 24900 is at the end of wave 5 5-5 or a state where wave 5 does not end, or a three-saw trend that is viewed according to a rebound wave, there is a divergence here.



We need to judge by the subsequent retracement structure, strength and time, but the short-term must not be able to chase more.

Wait patiently to step back, if you are short The trend is currently so strong The right side of the hour level will be better The left mold top Usually many traders die like this. And you have a certain amount of resilience that would otherwise be difficult.

LINK: Upper pressure 9-9.8 US dollars The bottom has been consolidating for more than a year The level has broken through the next level, and we observe the breakout state.

The above analysis is only a brick and a jade, welcome to the axe! No basis for investment!

在较早之前我做出过比特币的中期走势的几种看法。

其一：以31800美金为终点的应对69000-15000反弹浪的终结。

![](https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-f3b3e13981-b98cf62178-07811d-ea20a0-13)

其二：以31000美金为终点的应对69000-15000反弹浪 浪A终结、

![](https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-f3b3e13981-18ceaaad74-07811d-ea20a0-12)

其三：以31800美金为终点的应对69000-15000反弹浪 浪A终结。

![](https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-f3b3e13981-3b39accbba-07811d-ea20a0-34)

其中几套方案中 二三无非是调整的结构 比例 力度 时间维度等不同 但是 均以反弹浪并未结束划分。

其中走势1后续的走势为 同级别的浪C看待 或者是浪3看待 浪C为月线级别的大C浪 下跌

他的目标是以击穿15XXX美金为基础  至于击穿以后去哪里 那就需要市场验证了。

其中走势2后续的为31000-24900为浪Ba 249000-31800为浪bb 同时这段为反弹浪的强B构成。

（强B浪为突破浪A的起点位置所构成的一种走势类型） 31800-24900为浪Bc 那么后续的走势为整体浪C

浪C为周线笔 按照AC等距测算的话浪C的目标在40438美金  最低目标为突破31800美金 随时可以完结

其中走势3为31800美金为终点的浪A结束走势 但是并未完整等的完整整个反弹浪结构

31800-24900美金的这波日线级别的下跌 为浪Ba结构 24900-30300 或者是？？？？美金

后续还有一波中级别的日线笔下跌 才能完成整个周线的浪B结构  同时浪B结构完成浪C主升浪 随时开启。

以上是对中期级别走势的几种看法。

假设大饼突破31800美金 那么就要否定 方案1方案3  其实前段时间我提出过28600美金作为 中期牛熊的分界线。

![](https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-f3b3e13981-d690d009dc-07811d-ea20a0-9)

24900以来的走势处于浪5 的尾端5-5终结 或者是5浪并未结束的一种状态，或者是按照反弹浪看待的三锯齿走势，都可以 这里是存在着分歧的。



我们需要通过后续的回踩结构 力度 和时间来评判倒是是那种走势类型但是短期肯定是不能追多了。

耐心等待回踩吧，做空的话 走势目前这么强 等个小时级别的右侧会比较好 左侧模顶 通常很多交易员都是这么死的。还有你一定的韧性 不然很难。

LINK：上方压力9-9.8美金 底部盘整了一年多 次级别已经突破我们观察下突破状态。

以上分析仅抛砖引玉，欢迎大家斧正！不做投资依据！

比特币中期牛市即将来临！10-21行情解读。

Bitcoin's mid-term bull market is coming! 10-21 market interpretation.

In terms of time: It has been running for 234 days since the price of 15,000 US dollars. If the base point is 31,800 US dollars, the rebound ratio is 61.8%
In terms of space: since the rebound of 15,000 US dollars, it has rebounded by more than 26.8% and less than 38.2%, which meets the minimum rebound requirement.
Structurally: At the end of the triple zigzag Z wave, the driving wave can also be explained but it is not so reasonable (the only reasonable explanation is the triple zigzag)

On June 26, we raised the possibility of whether the wave Zc of the excessive cycle is over. (For details, please refer to the 6-26 Bitcoin forecast)


Taking Bitcoin as the base point from the 8th to the 17th, the period of 31800-28625 US dollars is assumed to be the driving wave structure of the departure period of the two centers.


The follow-up small-level ABC rebound trend is relatively regular.


As shown below:.


From a morphological point of view, I was more inclined to the driving wave at the time, but it is also feasible to interpret the adjustment wave as a triple zigzag as Zb. The trend is so ambiguous most of the time. It's all about subjective judgment! That's why I'm less inclined to be short. Although it is a certain short position!


Based on the trend since 30242 US dollars, it is feasible to assume that the wave A3 or Wc that has ended since 15XXX-318XX


Even here as Zbc since 15XXX I am not so against. (In the case of ZBC, the time of wave B is too long, the time of Wb is 16 days, and the time of Yb is 18 days, so the ZBC plan is personally not inclined, but it is in line with the theory)


In terms of time: It has been running for 234 days since the price of 15,000 US dollars. If the base point is 31,800 US dollars, the rebound ratio is 61.8%


In terms of space: since the rebound of 15,000 US dollars, it has rebounded by more than 26.8% and less than 38.2%, which meets the minimum rebound requirement.


Structurally: At the end of the triple zigzag Z wave, the driving wave can also be explained but it is not so reasonable (the only reasonable explanation is the triple zigzag)


The overall goal is still the same. The type of 312 519 below 15,000 will crash again, and only then can we hope to usher in a magnificent market, otherwise the bull market is unpredictable! It is not advisable to use history as a mirror.


Continuing the small structure, the possibility of Zc is greatly reduced, and what is left is to open positions at those positions and target positions such as A3WC and the deterministic left upside end point.


Based on AC isometric calculation, the one-to-one position is at 27045 and the 1.618 position is at 25068. That is to say, if AC is established, I think at least go to 27XXX-25XXX first.


Use the Fibonacci retracement ratio to determine the end and non-existent position of ZC. I take 70% under normal circumstances 61.8% 100%


The position is at 26705 US dollars.


From the point of view of pressure, our positions are in the short position of 28850-29350 US dollars, which is a pressure range. It is not a fixed point. Stop loss 30226


Or change the right shoulder position to 30400 US dollars and stop loss 31850. This requires the continuous evolution of the market.


In terms of logarithmic coordinates, it has fallen below the trend line connecting the low points of 19XXX-24XXX. The trend line of 15XXX has not fallen below $27,606, and the above position is a logarithmic coordinate.


I won't go into too much detail about other indicator MACD divergences and so on.


The above is my personal opinion, for reference only and not as a basis for opening a position! (Axe correction is welcome)


If the account has no money, you can't post pictures, and the meeting will be adjourned!

时间上：从15000美金以来运行了234天以31800美金为基点的话，反弹比例为61.8%
空间上：从15000美金以来反弹了26.8%以上 不及38.2% 符合了最低反弹需求。
结构上：三锯齿Z浪尾端，驱动浪也能解释 但是不那么合理（合理的解释只有三锯齿一种）

在6月26日 我们提出过 大周期的浪Zc 是否结束的可能性。（详情请参考6-26日比特币预测）

以8-17日比特币为基点，31800-28625美金这段假设为两中枢的离开段驱动浪结构。

后续的小级别ABC反弹走势较为规整。

如下图：.

形态学的角度来说在当时我更加倾向于驱动浪，但是勉强解释为三锯齿的调整浪作为Zb也是可行的。走势在大多数时候就是这么的模棱两可。全靠主观判断！这也是为什么我不太倾向做空的原因。虽然是打了一定的空头仓位 ！

以30242美金以来的走势，假设为15XXX-318XX以来终结的浪A3 或者是W-c都是可行的

甚至这里作为 15XXX以来的Z-b-c我都是不那么反对的。（ZBC的话浪B的时间过长Wb时间为16天Yb的时间为18天  所以ZBC方案个人不做倾向 但是符合理论）

时间上：从15000美金以来运行了234天以31800美金为基点的话，反弹比例为61.8%

空间上：从15000美金以来反弹了26.8%以上 不及38.2% 符合了最低反弹需求。

结构上：三锯齿Z浪尾端，驱动浪也能解释 但是不那么合理（合理的解释只有三锯齿一种）

总体目标还是不变的15000以下类型312 519那种形式的崩盘再来一次，才有希望迎来波澜壮阔的大行情 不然牛市不可期！以史为镜并不可取。

延续小结构，Zc的可能性大大减少，剩下的就是在那些位置打仓  和以A3WC举例的目标位置 以及确定性左侧上攻结束的点位。

以AC等距测算，一比一的位置在27045 1.618位置在25068 也就是说假设AC成立的话 我觉得最起码先去27XXX-25XXX

以斐波那契回撤比例来确定ZC终结和不存在的位置我取70% 一般情况下61.8% 100%

位置在26705美金。

以压力的角度来说 我们打仓位的位置在，28850-29350美金做空，这是一个压力区间。 并不是固定的某一个点位。止损30226

或者是换个右肩位置 30400美金 止损31850 这需要行情的不断演变。

以对数坐标来讲，目前已经跌破了19XXX-24XXX低点连线的趋势线。15XXX的趋势线目前并未跌破在27606美金，以上位置为对数坐标。

其他的指标性MACD背离等等就不做过多赘述。

以上就是个人浅见，仅供参考不做开仓依据！（欢迎斧正）

账户没钱不能发图，散会！

雄关漫道真如铁 而今迈步从头越 ！
雄关漫道真如铁 而今迈步从头越 ！

The Xiongguan Road is really like iron, and now it is moving from the beginning!
The Xiongguan Road is really like iron, and now it is moving from the beginning!

Remember this sentence at the end of the medium and long term!

Quote from gate




Yesterday, it was proposed that 314XX US dollars are expected to be the top of 24XXX-314XX US dollars, which has been successfully fulfilled.


In the comment area, I found that there are many voices questioning the theory


Here I explain my point of view!


There are various types of trends, especially when the market divergence is serious.


No matter which direction the possibility exists and may be verified by the trend, no matter which analyst comes, it is the same.


At the same time, in the Bitcoin market, there is a high probability of the existence of V reverse pin high shocks and a series of irregular shocks.


This is also caused by insufficient market depth.


If you simply use theory to apply mechanically, the results will often run counter to it.


Therefore, a series of concepts such as the divergence of entanglement theory and the level of structural time and strength have been introduced into my theory.


Although it is said that there is no guarantee of a 99% winning rate, the winning rate is higher if you simply apply theory.


Continuing to go back to our differences on trend diversity, beasts have diversity all the time. What I can do is to suggest that this trend may be broken through or broken down or the type of indicator to make a trending suggestion for a certain trend. .


The rest is to buy and leave, and the wealth is in the sky. But do your best and look at the destiny!


Finally, I would like to reiterate that my analysis is purely obligatory, and I am not planning to use analysis to charge for purely throwing bricks and stones. If you have different opinions, please discuss and reject trolls in the comment area.


Back to the board:


What is relatively certain for Bitcoin in the short term is that this wave of upswing has ended.


The lower step-back interval is above 61.8%, which I think is reasonable. The position of 61.8% is 27,864 US dollars.


Assuming that 314XX is the mid-term top wave 5, the follow-up will be a mid-to-long-term major adjustment, although I think there are many internal structures in this plan that are not very clear.


Assuming that 314XX is the top of Za, there will be Zc upside after the 24-314XX adjustment is completed. The logic of the Z wave is to assume that the bottom is three zigzags! (For details, please refer to the division of copywriting a few days ago)


24XXX-31XXX US dollar up is a clear driving wave upside without assuming the end of Z wave.


![](https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-f3b3e13981-6b57422d6a-07811d-faeac4-37)


In human terms, after the adjustment, according to the theory, if you exclude wave 5, you still have to rush! This is the top of 15XXX-314XX assuming wave 5.

报价来源于gate


昨天提出过314XX美金有希望做24XXX-314XX美金上来的顶部这一倾向顺利的得到了应验。

评论区我发现质疑理论的声音较多

这里我阐述下我的观点！

走势的类型是多种多样的 特别是这种市场分歧严重的时候。

无论那种方向的可能性都是存在并且有可能得到走势认证的 这点无论那个分析师来了都是一样的。

同时在比特币市场中，V反 插针 高位震荡新高 和一系列无规则的震荡 存在的概率较大。

这也是市场深度不够造成的。

你单纯的用理论来生搬硬套造成的结果往往会背道而驰。

所以在我的理论中引入了缠论的背驰 和结构 时间 力度 级别等一系列概念。

虽然说无法保证99%胜率但是总归是单纯用理论来硬套的话胜率高一些。

继续回到我们对走势多样性的分歧来说，走兽无时无刻都存在多样性 我能做的就是把这种走势可能提出 通过突破或者是跌破 或者是指标类型来做对某种走势的倾向性建议。

剩下的就是买定离手，富贵在天。但尽人事 且看天命！

最后重申一点 我做的分析纯义务，后续也不准备通过分析来收费  单纯的抛砖引玉，如有不同观点 欢迎评论区探讨 拒绝喷子。

回到盘面：

比特币短期较为确定的是 这波拉升已经结束。

下方的回踩区间在61.8%以上我觉得都是合理的 61.8%的位置在27864美金。

假设 314XX作为中期顶部浪5来说的话 后续就是中长期的大调整 虽然我觉得这套方案有诸多内部结构 并不甚清晰。

假设314XX作为Za的顶部的话，应对24-314XX调整结束后还会有Zc上攻。Z浪的逻辑是假设底部上来为三锯齿！（详情请看前几天文案的划分）

24XXX-31XXX美金上来是一个清晰的驱动浪上攻 不假设Z浪完结。

![](https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-f3b3e13981-6b57422d6a-07811d-faeac4-37)

说人话就是调整过后按照理论来说排除浪5的话还要冲！假设是浪5的话这就是15XXX-314XX的顶部。

2023年6月26日比特币预测

Bitcoin prediction for June 26, 2023

To sum up; shorting and shorting well is to contribute to our career.

Quote from gate


The monthly structure of Bitcoin is defined as a wave B rebound after the end of the first time bull market


The structure of the 15XXX dollar is defined as the end of the ABC rebound/the three-saw-tooth XX wave. These two different definitions determine whether there will be a new high of more than 31,000 US dollars in the future.


Personally, I am more inclined to end the ABC rebound.


The trend since $31,000 is divided into the end of ABC/guidance wave 4.


Personally, I am more inclined to guide the end of wave 4,


From a structural perspective, the macd daily level continues to deviate.


From the perspective of time, it has rebounded around 50% of the decline.


From the perspective of space, it rebounded more than 23.6% of the decline.


From the perspective of pressure, 28000-45000 belongs to the area where chips are concentrated.


So this is the leading wave plan that I am more inclined to end ABC.


Analysis cannot simply follow what others say, but must have its own way of thinking. It's not as simple as long and short.




As shown in the picture (4 hours):


Guiding wave 4 should not break through the downtrend line at $28,380.


After the end of the guiding wave 4, the target area below is 24000-24800 without considering acceleration.


The lowest target of guiding wave 4 breaks through $25,811.


As shown in the figure (hour chart):


28447-26505 USD is defined as a clear driving wave structure and tentatively defined as a guiding wave 5/1 The rebound in these two days is a 5-2 wave rebound.


The 52 rebound continues. Wave A is currently considered to be the end of Wave C. It is yet to be determined whether it will end. (Tends to end)


To sum up; shorting and shorting well is to contribute to our career. (Self-configuration of positions, follow-up analysis and learning groups will not make position suggestions)




The VIP level is not enough, so I can't post the picture later.

综上所述;好好做空 做空就是为我们的事业添砖加瓦。

报价来源于gate

比特币的月线结构定义为第一轮时间牛市结束后的浪B反弹

15XXX美金上来的结构定义为ABC反弹结束/三锯齿的XX浪 这两个不同的定义决定着后续是否有超过31000美金的新高问题。

个人更加倾向ABC反弹结束。

31000美金以来的走势划分为ABC /引导浪4结束。

个人更加倾向引导浪4结束、

从结构的维度来讲macd日线级别持续背离。

从时间的维度来讲 已经反弹了下跌的50%前后。

从空间的角度来讲反弹了下跌的23.6%以上 。

从压力的角度来讲 28000-45000属于筹码集中区。

所以这是我更加倾向ABC结束的引导浪方案。

分析并不能单纯的人云亦云，要有自己思考的方法方式。并不是简单的多空那么简单。


如图所示（4小时）：

引导浪4不应该突破下跌趋势线28380美金。

引导浪4结束后不考虑加速的情况下 下方的目标24000-24800一带。

引导浪4的最低目标击穿25811美金。

如图所示（小时图）：

28447-26505美金定义为清晰的驱动浪结构 姑且定义为引导浪5/1 这两天的反弹为5-2浪反弹。

52反弹延续中浪A目前认为结束 浪C是否结束待定。（倾向结束）

综上所述;好好做空 做空就是为我们的事业添砖加瓦。（仓位自行配置 后续分析学习群一律不做仓位建议）


VIP 等级不够 不能放图 后续再说。

Is Bitcoin about to peak?

Bitcoin's mid-term bull market is coming! 10-21 market interpretation.

The Xiongguan Road is really like iron, and now it is moving from the beginning! The Xiongguan Road is really like iron, and now it is moving from the beginning!

Bitcoin prediction for June 26, 2023

Bitcoin Prediction for June 3, 2023

The Xiongguan Road is really like iron, and now it is moving from the beginning!
The Xiongguan Road is really like iron, and now it is moving from the beginning!